Being a leader means that life is full of a constant stream of problems arising and being dealt with. The recipe for success is not obvious, there are times when you must try new ways besides the usual ones. One such way is the problem tree method, which supports structured and detailed analysis. In this article, we briefly describe this valuable and efficient method.

Why do we need a problem tree?

In the first year of the COVID pandemic, McKinsey published an analysis of how to think in uncertain times. It showed that, in solving problems with extreme uncertainty, excellent problem solvers are curious, tolerant of uncertainty, multi-perspective, focused on real-world behaviour, harness collective intelligence and present solutions convincingly. You cannot be born that way; you must learn to think that way.

The problem tree technique is something every leader should be familiar with because there is a lot of uncertainty in the world and it is only increasing in the business world.

History of the problem tree mothod

The methodology of the problem tree (also known as the causal tree) was developed in the 1960s, primarily in the field of project management and organisational development. It has its roots in thinking in systems and the Logical Framework Approach (LFA). Its development is closely linked to the design of international development projects. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) began to use the LFA in the 1960s, and problem tree analysis has become an integral part of this approach.

Its main milestones are:

• 1960s: USAID introduces the logical framework approach.
• 1970s: The method is adopted by European development agencies.
• 1980s: Problem tree analysis becomes an established method.
• 1990s: Widely adopted in project planning and organisational development.

The method's popularity is due to its visual clarity (as it resembles a tree in its visuality), its ability to help identify interrelationships, its support for group problem-solving and its effectiveness in setting objectives.

Today, problem tree analysis is an essential tool for project management, used by organisations worldwide to map and solve problems in a structured way.

For what is it used?

The main purpose of problem tree analysis is problem analysis, i.e. to identify existing problems and the cause-and-effect relationships between them. This tool helps the manager to get an overall picture of a given situation and to understand how and at what level the different problems are interrelated.

Most importantly, in the analysis, the problems are presented in the form of a tree diagram, where the trunk represents the central problem (focal problem), the roots the causes of the problem and the branches the consequences.

The main objectives of the analysis are:

• To reveal the complexity of the problem. The problem tree methodology helps to understand the depth and complexity of the problem by revealing the underlying causes and consequences.
• To identify the points of intervention. The analysis can highlight the points at which intervention can be most effective in solving the problem.
• To facilitate shared understanding. The problem tree is an effective tool for group work that promotes shared understanding among participants.
• It is a basis for developing solutions. A thorough exploration of the causes and consequences of the problem can help to develop effective solutions.

It is important to note that problem tree analysis is not static, but constantly evolving and may change depending on the participants and the situation.

How to make a problem tree?

1. Survey and list the problems: brainstorming to identify, collect and list as many existing problems as possible.
2. Identify the central problem (focus or key problem): this will form the trunk of the "tree" and the other problems can be linked to it as causes or consequences.
3. Identify the causes and consequences: which of the problems in the list are the causes of the focal problem and which are the consequences? The causes will form the root of the "tree" and the consequences will form its branches.
4. Hierarchical arrangement: the causes and consequences of the central problem should be arranged in a superior-subordinate order. For causes, identify which causes lead to other causes until the root of the problem is reached. For the consequences, it is necessary to determine which consequences lead to other consequences.
5. Drawing the problem tree diagram: the central problem, which is the trunk of the "tree", is placed in the middle of the diagram. Below it, the causes of the problem, the roots of the "tree", are shown, and above it, the consequences, the branches of the "tree".

The diagram should be logical and understandable and should reflect the cause and effect of the problem as closely as possible.

(There is also a so-called goal tree, which is a positive reflection of the otherwise negative approach of the problem tree, by redefining problems in terms of goals.)

As a result of the problem tree analysis, we can identify the points where intervention can be most effective. The problem tree can then help managers to select the most important and feasible points of intervention.

It is useful in areas such as product development to identify development or manufacturing defects, but it is also an excellent tool for process optimisation, strategic planning or even community project planning. It can be a particularly useful tool for solving complex problems where neither the root cause of the problem nor its solution is obvious.